SD Friday Wrap: It has been a rough week, but it’s not over yet. Here’s where we’ve been, and why we’re still not in the clear…
Take twelve seconds our of your day to enjoy some good old-fashioned hurricane thrashin’ in America:
He’s internet famous.
He’s the guy who likes to headbang during major hurricanes.
Here he is during Hurricane Matthew:
He absolutely shredded the National Anthem in 2015 on his guitar, and he even got detained for it
Read about it in his own words (bold for emphasis):
UPDATE: I fought the law and I won. Shouts out to everyone that rode with me through this!
ATTENTION: I want to put this out before anyone hears anything differently. On July 4th, 2015, I was arrested by Neptune Beach police officers for playing the Star Spangled Banner (and a few seconds of Ted Nugent) on my guitar on 1st Street and Margaret in the 32266.I originally set up in the middle of the street but was told by an officer that I was going to go to jail if I kept playing and that I couldn’t play in the street. I then asked if I could just move it back to the side walk and the officer said yes. So I did. After I got done, multiple officers came up to me and said they “just needed to talk to me.” I thought I was in the clear because the original officer told me it was okay to play on the sidewalk. I guess he failed to let his fellow officers know because they detained me and threatened to take me downtown for it. I do not promote deliberately defying authority. I endorse good character and fun times within the system. I did not have a drop of alcohol in my system and was just trying to be as patriotic as I can, legally, on the day of our independence. So, before rumors spread, this is to clarify ANYTHING being said among the public. I have youth that I teach small groups at in church. I have youth that I coach. I would never, for a second, want them to think that intentionally rebelling against authority is something that I am for. Nor do I want the parents of those youth to think that. I am very thankful for the support of THE greatest family, friends, and fans in the entire world. I love all of ya’ll more than you can ever know. Please feel free to share this video to anyone out there. AMERICA!!
Hear the shredding and see some of the police incident (Jimi Hendrix is smiling in his grave):
In all honesty, it’s been one of those kind of weeks, you know?
Here’s the thing: Since I can’t get into the whole “Never Forget” meme, because I think there are serious problems with the official narrative to say the least, yet since it is still a “rally around the flag” type of week, Lane Pittman, while short on words, but long in hair and on heavy metal, and rocking American flags to boot, just seems to sum up what this week has been like – Rough and rowdy and leaving me with a feeling of opening up a can of whoop-ahhh, nevermind.
It’s the symbolism.
Yeah, that’s it.
But not only that: The first thing that comes to my mind is, well, I don’t have to say it because I’m sure you already know it, but I’ll say it anyway – Peak Trump.
I have been saying all along to expect no substantial rally in gold & silver until it is obvious we are over the peak, and on the descent. I think the time for that could be around the month of November in general, and the mid-term elections specifically, but we’ll have to wait and see.
Moving on, let’s re-visit a point I made earlier in the week: The Deep State may be using the distraction of the hurricane to go live with their false flag in Syria. Why? The whole nation will, between watching college football on Saturday, and the NFL on Sunday, be glued to the screen, looking at Hurricane Florence coverage.
Hurricane Florence is expected to continue dumping massive amounts of rain over the weekend on the Carolinas,
The point is that the Hurricane may have weakened, but we are far from clear of danger. Notice on the map there are areas in North and South Carolina that are expected to get over 20 inches of rainfall. that is a lot of rain in such a short period of time. Flooding becomes a real danger, and remember, when Hurricane Katrina passed, for hours afterwards, everybody was like, “oh, this isn’t so bad”, and then the flooding began.
The main point: The flooding with Hurricane Florence has only just begun.
I also speak from experience.
I lived in North Carolina during many hurricanes, the two most notable being Fran and Floyd. I can tell you that the day the hurricane moves through is not when the problems begin. It is after the hurricane has passed when the problems begin. Which brings me back to my concern about a false flag – if problems begin – widespread looting, massive flooding, a rising death toll, or things like that, between the destruction from the hurricane, and football, most Americans wouldn’t even notice if that crazy Assad “gassed” his own people.
In fact, I’m sure most Americans don’t even know who Assad is. At most, they’ve heard of Syria and some “civil war” there.
That said, congress will be so focused on showing how they are doing such good things to provide relief to the American people in their time of need (Hurricane Florence) that if there is a false flag, we could find ourselves escalating military action in Syria very quickly because plans, which have already been drawn out, will just be rushed over and pushed through, with little debate, if there is any at all, and military action will be taken.
It really is a simple as that.
We are going into the weekend.
Bad things happen on weekends.
The last time our military really struck out at Syria was over a weekend in April with those 103 missiles launched on three Syrian targets. Therefore, if something does go down this weekend, everybody might want to take a peek at the gold & silver charts on Sunday evening to see if there is any major movement.
I will be checking in on the charts and will provide a post if needed.
OK, “But Half Dollar, what does increasing military conflict in Syria have to do with gold & silver?”.
Another good question.
Let’s first answer it with a question: Who is supporting Syria?
Overtly, there is Russia, Iran and Turkey. All three of those nations are subject to US economic sanctions, all three of those nations are in some sort of currency turmoil (Russia to a lesser extent), all three of those nations want to move away from the dollar, and all three of those nations are stacking gold.
So what’s the bottom line here?
Increasing a military response in Syria will not just be bullish for gold & silver, but a military response might literally force the gold & silver markets to the point of breaking. We hear it all the time. It is an active, conscious move away from the dollar by these nations, and assuming a hot war starting up in Syria, that could turbo-charge the move.
Of course, this is also assuming it doesn’t spark off World War III, a topic I won’t dive into for now.
Speaking of diving, let’s dive into the charts.
Before we do that, however, as disclaimer:
Don’t go diving into any flood waters, especially those that may be infested with sharks:
— Jason Michael (@Jeggit) September 14, 2018
(Spoiler Alert: That shark has been debunked as Fake News)
See what I mean?
It’s been one of those weeks.
The numbness from last week of being a gold & silver investor has passed, so I’m just trying to stay positive because I know we will have made the right decision for the long run, and I hope you stay positive too. That is why I’m attempting to be somewhat lighthearted this week.
I think we all need it – From 9/11 to a Hurricane to escalating tensions in the Middle East, yeah, you could say we need some lightheartedness.
But I digress.
On to the charts!
The gold to silver ratio is basically where it has been all week:
We are getting some prints under 84, and some over 85, with the bulk of the range being 84 – 85. When it takes 85 ounces of silver to buy just one single ounce of gold, when, historically speaking, it only took 16 ounces of silver to buy one single ounce of gold, and when silver comes out of the ground at a ratio of 9 to 1 to gold, the gold-to-silver ratio is still screaming “buy silver”.
Hopefully stackers were able to pick up some physical silver on Tuesday, when price dipped below $14:
Do I think we are going below the December, 2015 lows?
I do not.
That said, if anybody is trying to time a purchase, pay attention to the premiums like a hawk, because if we dip much below $14, then availability of product becomes an issue and premiums will adjust accordingly.
Why don’t I think we are going to go lower?
Because the price of oil is still around $70 per barrel.
You see, at the end of 2015, the miners had already been cutting costs for four years, and oil was about to bottom out in early 2016 at $26. Since the end of 2015, costs have been rising as we have seen in inflation in general, and the price of oil has nearly tripled in nearly three years. That said, unless the price of oil starts dropping, I think we are going to stay above the lows from 2015. In the grand scheme of things, however, we can still call it a double bottom. I mean, we’re literally right there, sans a few dimes (the cupro-nickel dimes that is).
Zooming out a bit, we can see that silver is now down for the 3rd week in a row:
Silver is now down 13 of the last 14 weeks.
Silver is not some get rich quick scheme. It’s a long-term investment that, after many years, goes on awesome bull runs, and since silver was $20 in early 2008, I’d say it’s been many years. We are, in my opinion, close to beginning the next multi-year, bull run, and it will be confirmed just as soon as the decent from Peak Trump is also confirmed.
Gold is also down again this week:
That is now the third week in a row, and 6 of the last 7. It sure does look like gold is finding a bottom here. We haven’t gone much lower, and we have more or less been consolidating in a range for the last five weeks, and the technicals are starting to shape-up and turn bullish, so, all things considered, it is not looking that bad where we are.
Zooming in a bit, we can clearly see the higher-low in gold:
And we could see the all-important higher-high as early as next week! Gold also tagged its 50-day moving average, which is a good sign, and I’ll explain why that is when talking about palladium.
Palladium is still consolidating:
That is nearly a tag of the 200-day moving average.
Remember, the “underlying”, that is, the thing we are talking about, in this case palladium, usually will go up and tag the moving average. After tagging the moving average, there will likely be some attempts to either break through, or the moving average will hold as resistance, and a further break-down would be on the horizon. The point here is that if gold looks like it is in an uptrend, which it does, and if palladium is about to tag its 200-day, which it looks like palladium is about to do, then the set-up is indeed bullish, albeit a little early, and the good Lord knows we’ve seen plenty of false break-outs.
Platinum is showing the same bullish qualities as gold & palladium:
We have a fresh higher-low (like gold), and we are now attempting to punch through a major moving average (like palladium).
The outlook is not bleak.
Crude oil is dancing around its 50-day moving average again:
We punched though $70 on three days this week.
And even though it is erratic, copper clearly shows a higher-low on the chart:
If this is the start of the retail coin investor coming back into the market, especially the retail silver investor, then the cartel is going to need as much bi-product silver from copper mining that it can get, so fundamentally speaking, the outlook is good for copper, even if the economy is slowing down.
In other words, while a drop in the demand in copper correlates to a slowdown in economic activity, depending on how tight silver supplies are, or become, the price of copper might get some artificial support here by the cartel in order to get actual physical silver to market.
Because the cartel knows that silver is in strong hands, and it will take substantially higher prices for the investors’ silver to come to market.
This week I also said the stock market would need all the support it could get to surge to new all-time highs. I’m talking about the Dow here. It did not reach new all-time highs, but it did get near perfect help from it’s friends (VIX, 10-Year and US dollar).
The VIX looks like it could drop below 12 soon:
It’s hard to get much more support than that.
Sure, they could smash the VIX to under 10, and they may actually have to do that, but if there are some economic or geo-political shocks, the cartel still may not get the desired outcome they are looking for.
Regardless, at 12, we have maximum complacency for that final stock market melt-up.
Assuming I’m right on my call.
I said we would need to see a move away from “safe” assets in order to facilitate a move into “risk” assets, and we saw just that.
In fact, the yield on the 10-Year Note got to 3.0% just today:
Which puts us in a very peculiar position.
The yield is at resistance right now, and over the last several months, all runs to 3.0% have ended in a matter of days, so if the Dow is going to hit all-time highs, it better hurry because the yield isn’t going to hang around here for long. It is likely to break-down or break-out, and we’re about to find out which.
So with the help of the VIX and the bond market, this is all the stock market could muster:
That is really pretty weak, and marking time around 26,000 can’t last for much longer.
The dollar, falling on the week before surging today, has remained neutral (i.e. supportive) for the stock market:
And the dollar doesn’t look good here, so again, the stock market better get a move on.
The dollar now has a clear lower-high on the chart above. If the dollar drops again next week, that chart is going to start looking bearish. Said differently, if the dollar is topping out here, which I think it is, then gold & silver should be bottoming out here, which I think they are.
So let’s sum up this week in a phrase: Livin’ on edge.
The world is on edge, the United States is on edge, and these markets are on edge.
We have a stubborn hurricane wreaking havoc in the state I came of age in, and I have this gut feeling that the distraction Hurricane Florence brings with it to those not directly affected by it will provide the perfect cover for the false flag that everybody knows is coming.
Hurricane survivors – Stay strong.
The “S” has hit the fan, regionally, and globally, things are looking kinda shaky.
– Half Dollar
About the Author
U.S. Army Iraq War Combat Veteran Paul “Half Dollar” Eberhart has an AS in Information Systems and Security from Western Technical College and a BA in Spanish from The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. Paul dived into gold & silver in 2009 as a natural progression from the prepper community. He is self-studied in the field of economics, an active amateur trader, and a Silver Bug at heart.