It is the Dog Days of summer and the US Treasury has a huge issuance of debt this week across the curve. And now JPMorgan Chase’s Jaime Dimon is warning investors to brace for impact … of rising Treasury yields. Is this a repeat of the Titanic striking the iceberg? Or the Cleveland Browns football team?
(Bloomberg) — Not content with a previous warning investors should brace for U.S. yields of 4 percent, Jamie Dimon went one further at the weekend, suggesting 5 percent was a distinct possibility.
The JPMorgan Chase & Co. chief executive officer said Saturday people should be prepared to deal with the benchmark 10-year bond yield at 5 percent or higher.
“I think rates should be 4 percent today,” Dimon said Saturday at the Aspen Institute’s 25th Annual Summer Celebration Gala. “You better be prepared to deal with rates 5 percent or higher – it’s a higher probability than most people think.”
The 3 percent level is still providing stiff resistance for the 10-year Treasury yield this year. It briefly rose through the mark last week before falling back for the fourth time this year. That’s despite a U.S. jobless rate below 4 percent, economic growth above 4 percent, and a rare surge in late-cycle government borrowing.
In addition, concerns about rising prices appear to be ebbing. In the U.S., the 5-year
break-even rate, a gauge of inflation expectations, has fallen to just under 2 percent, down from this year’s high of almost 2.2 percent.
Still, Dimon remained positive on the outlook for financial markets.
The current bull market could “actually go for 2 or 3 more years” because the economy is still doing quite well and markets usually turn right before the economy, he said.
The Treasury slope (10Y-2Y) resumes its downward trajectory.
And here is the interest rate volatility cube.